How, when and where can Spatial Segregation Induce Opinion Polarization? Two Competing Models

Increasing ethnic diversity fosters scholarly interest in how the spatial segregation of groups a ects opinion polarization in a society. Despite much empirical and theoretical research, there is little consensus in the literature on the causal link between the spatial segregation of two groups and the emergence of opinion polarization. We contribute to the debate by investigating theoretically the conditions under which the former fosters or hinders the latter. We focus on two processes of opinion polarization (negative influence and persuasive argument communication) that, according topreviousmodelingwork, canbeexpected tomake conflicting predictions about the relationship between segregation and opinion polarization. With a Schelling-type agentbased model of residential segregation, we generate initial environments with di erent levels of group segregation. Then we simulate the two processes of opinion dynamics. We show that the negative influence model predicts segregation to hinder the emergence of opinion polarization. On the other hand, the persuasive argumentmodel predicts that segregation does not substantially foster polarization. Moreover, we explore how the spatial patterns of opinion distribution di er between the models: in particular, we investigate the likelihood that group membership and opinion align. We show that the alignment of group membership and opinions di ers between the two opinion formation models, and that the scale at which we measure alignment plays a crucial role.